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    Is the market more fucked than it seems?

    As it has been wildly reported, the US dollar is down 10% YTD, which means that stocks themselves are even less valuable. To help visualize it, look at this table:

    Index 1/2/2025 4/16/2025 Change
    S&P 500 $5,868.55 $5,275.7 -10.10%
    Dow Jones $42,392.27 $39,669.39 -6.42%
    Nasdaq $19,280.79 $16,307.16 -15.42%

    It looks bad, but if we look at it in Euros:

    Index 1/2/2025 4/16/2025 Change
    S&P 500 €5,692.49 €4,642.62 -18.44%
    Dow Jones €41,120.50 €34,909.06 -15.11%
    Nasdaq €18,702.37 €14,350.30 -23.27%

    It is worse if we look at in gold, a common destination for one fleeing the dollar:

    Index 1/2/2025 (oz) 4/16/2025 (oz) Change
    S&P 500 2.209 1.573 -28.77%
    Dow Jones 15.954 11.829 -25.85%
    Nasdaq 7.256 4.862 -32.98%

    So what this mean? I have no idea. I am not a Forex trader, but this isn't a great image for the stability of the US Economy.

    Is the market more fucked than it seems?
    byu/42nd_loop inwallstreetbets



    Posted by 42nd_loop

    View 46 Comments

    46 Comments

    1. VisualMod on

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    3. decjr06 on

      Yes but also you’re missing the big picture with dollars…. Most of us are not making more of them… Meanwhile they are becoming less valuable while everything is getting way more expensive at a rapid pace…gold is a good example. It’s not just the market that’s fucked it’s all of us whether we are investing or not.

    14. TopherBrennan on

      Bullish if true, since it would mean we only have 40 more Euros to fall before SPY €420.

    16. briefcase_vs_shotgun on

      Is the dollar tracking spy, or spy the dollar? Or are they just semi loosely correlated. I’d imagine it’s the third option.

      The rate of the drop is worrying but far as I know dxy is still in a reasonable channel for now…could mean a bull trap this week

    18. roddybiker on

      The converse of this though is that it’s more attractive to invest now for a european assuming the dollar will go back up .

      Their euro goes further when purchasing today and if the dollar goes back up when sold it would increase the return.

      It’s all gambling anyway.

    19. Saltlife_Junkie on

      It’s been fucked. People buying makes no sense. Recession imminent. Every economic read so far has been to early to judge. Labor is screwed. Todays retail sales is a joke. People buying now cause tariffs. Dollar crashing is the key. 10 yr up. Watch those for the real data. Look at gold. Bad times ahead trust me.

    22. Dipstickpattywack on

      Fuggin index’s IV has been over 50% for two weeks. This market is a total meme now.

    23. IndependentBoth2831 on

      Remember it’s not that gold is going up in price but your money is becoming worthless

    24. aomt on

      Tariffs are at their highest level in 80 years. The way they are set up is equivalent to a 5-grader.
      President changes them every day.
      He fired everyone opposing him and hired people who had agreed with him on something – no competency needed.
      Bridges are burned, and no one trusts this administration anymore.
      China comfortably winning this trade war, while US market and companies are bleeding.
      SPY is back to 520 and there are not many other good news Trump can pull out to try to pump it.
      If he went out and said, he was wrong, it all canceled – sure, the economy/market would somehow (not fully, damage is done) recover. But that aint happening.

      Very soon we should see the rise in unemployment (doge + tariffs), prices, and inflation. Couple that with falling USD and increasing /10Y.

      Let me rephrase it. There is absolutely nothing positive about the current situation. And it’s completely self-inflicted, so there is not much FEDs or anyone else can do.

    27. bggie_G on

      you know it’s bad when they have to put on today’s shitshow of a presser to stop the market bleeding

    28. jcb989123 on

      If I’m in cash now with a large chunk, what’s the chances of buying back in after the market shits the bed similar to 2008. Would that not regrow my dollars.

    30. Teamerchant on

      Wait till the effects of the tariffs are felt.

      The market is drastically clawing into anything to keep it from crashing. When reality is unavoidable the sell off will be massive.

    34. twitchtvbevildre on

      yea that rebound after trump paused tarrifs was just the dollar plumeting we are in full on free fall right now being propped up by a weakening dollar

    37. LeopardFew3579 on

      THAT MEANS IM GETTING FUCKED TWICE ON MY ETFS IN EUROS

      GOT TO MOVE TO THE USA TO REGAIN MY LOSSES

    38. mardish on

      I saw a chart this morning showing the gulf between retail and institutional investors. Institutional are cashing in and exiting the market while retail is plowing in to buy the dip.

      What do you think is going to happen when the retail investors pull out for an expensive home repair or because they’ve been laid off?

      This is 100% just the beginning.

    39. Careful_Pair992 on

      Surfaces various stock currency ours.

      What does this mean- I don’t know

      ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4271)

    43. fbanaq on

      why do you think rest of world is de-risking from us assets that just 100 days ago were the safest of havens

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